A Premier League coaching change is one of the fastest ways a market can reprice a team, because it signals that the club believes performance will improve. But odds do not move because improvement is guaranteed; they move because uncertainty changes. The key to analyzing the “new manager effect” is to separate what is immediately measurable (selection, shape, tempo, set-piece routines) from what is mostly narrative (motivation, “bounce,” dressing-room reset). When you can map a coaching change to specific match behaviors, you can judge whether the new price is rational, premature, or still missing an important risk. What Actually Moves…